PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 2026: PROJECTED RESULTS FOLLOWING THE HH/UPND MAZABUKA RALLY

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 2026: PROJECTED RESULTS FOLLOWING THE HH/UPND MAZABUKA RALLY A statistical projection using the Ising Model of statistical physics, applied alongside a political science Fundamentals Model, has produced the following projected outcomes after the HH/UPND campaign rally in Mazabuka. 1. Mazabuka Central Constituency2021 Baseline: HH 87.3% | PF 12.0% | Turnout: 78.7% 2026 Projection:– […]

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 2026: PROJECTED RESULTS FOLLOWING THE HH/UPND MAZABUKA RALLY

A statistical projection using the Ising Model of statistical physics, applied alongside a political science Fundamentals Model, has produced the following projected outcomes after the HH/UPND campaign rally in Mazabuka.

1. Mazabuka Central Constituency
2021 Baseline: HH 87.3% | PF 12.0% | Turnout: 78.7%

2026 Projection:
– HH/UPND: 89.98% (43,755 votes)
– Mundubile/NRPUP: 4.78% (2,325 votes)
– Kalaba/CF: 1.12%
– M’membe/SP: 0.82%
– KBF: 0.51%
– Others: Below 0.4% each
– Rejected/Spoiled Ballots: 1.83% (891 ballots)

Projected turnout: Approximately 48,626 votes cast from 61,781 registered voters.

2. Mazabuka District
(Aggregated results for Magoye East, Magoye West, and Mazabuka Central)

2021 Baseline: HH 90.4% | PF 8.8% | Turnout: 81.2%

2026 Projection:
– HH/UPND: 91.67% (79,782 votes)
– Mundubile/NRPUP: 3.60% (3,136 votes)
– Kalaba/CF: 0.89%
– M’membe/SP: 0.65%
– Rejected/Spoiled Ballots: 2.01% (1,753 ballots)

Projected turnout: Approximately 87,029 votes cast from 107,115 registered voters.

3. Southern Province

2021 Baseline: HH 93.5% | PF 5.6% | Turnout: 83.9%

2026 Projection:
– HH/UPND: 93.28% (862,941 votes)
– Mundubile/NRPUP: 2.45% (22,678 votes)
– Kalaba/CF: 0.69%
– M’membe/SP: 0.50%
– Rejected/Spoiled Ballots: 2.20% (20,315 ballots)

Projected turnout: Approximately 925,156 votes cast from 1,103,275 registered voters.

4. National Projection

– HH/UPND: 66.69% (4,157,628 votes)
– Mundubile/NRPUP: 24.88% (1,551,125 votes)
– Kalaba/CF: 1.80%
– M’membe/SP: 1.31%
– KBF: 0.82%
– Mushimba/OPP: 0.55%
– Katuta: 0.49%
– Other candidates: Below 0.25% each
– Rejected/Spoiled Ballots: 2.97% (185,330 ballots)

Total projected votes cast nationwide: Approximately 6,234,256.

Note: These figures are projections generated from a statistical model using historical election data and campaign variables. They are not official election results or guarantees of the final outcome.

©️Zambia First Media